Bio
I’m a postdoctoral researcher at Precision Development (PxD), and I received a PhD from the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
At PxD, I lead innovative research projects on digital information services to enhance farmers’ climate resilience and gender inclusivity in India, utilizing my skills in research design, data analysis, stakeholder engagement, and fundraising to drive impactful solutions for farmers.
My research is in development and environmental economics. I focus on climate change adaptation strategies, household finance and financial resilience, and women’s economic participation in facilitating financial and climate resilience.
Here’s my Curriculum Vitae (Updated November 2024).
I’m on the job market in 2024-25!
My Job Market Paper studies how farmers in India update their beliefs following weather forecasts and realizations. It relies on incentivized lab-in-the-field experiments, a natural experiment, and A/B testing with a real-world voice-call weather forecast service.
Email: vaishnavi.s@gmail.com
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Publications
(with Vivian Hoffmann, Vijayendra Rao, and Upamanyu Datta)
Journal of Development Economics, January 2021
Abstract (click to expand): Provision of low-cost credit to the poor through self-help groups (SHGs) has been embraced as a key poverty-reduction strategy in developing countries, but evidence on the impact of this approach is thin. Using a randomized program rollout over 180 panchayats, we evaluate the impact of a government-led SHG initiative in the Indian state of Bihar. Two years after the start of the program, we find a dramatic increase in SHG membership, borrowing from SHGs, and a corresponding decline in the use of informal credit. Fewer informal lenders are operating in treatment villages, and those who do charge lower interest rates. While these credit market impacts could lead to substantial improvements in economic well-being over time, the short-run impact of the program on such outcomes is modest.
Replication Files
Working Papers
(with Shawn Cole, Tomoko Harigaya)
Job Market Paper
Abstract (click to expand): Weather-induced agricultural productivity risk reduces farmers’ incomes, and is amplified by climate change. Short-to-medium-range rainfall forecasts (0-to-15 days ahead) can help farmers optimize within-season decisions to mitigate such risk—provided they accurately interpret, trust, and act on the forecasts. Using incentivized lab-in-the-field and real-world experiments with a voice-call weather forecast service, we study how farmers in India update their beliefs following forecasts and forecast outcomes. While farmers have high demand for forecast services, their trust in forecasts decreases after erroneous predictions, with less frequent use after errors. Accuracy in initial interactions mitigates this effect, highlighting the importance of early successes for building longer-term trust in a new technology. Notably, when climate change is made salient, farmers are more likely to use forecasts, and are more tolerant of forecast errors—underscoring the value of forecasts in climate adaptation.
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(with Shawn Cole, Tomoko Harigaya)
Working Paper
Abstract (click to expand): Making customized, accurate weather forecasts more accessible to farmers can aid adaptation to climate change. For farmers to make more informed decisions through the agricultural season with the aid of forecasts, forecasts need to be customized to best communicate information relevant for farmers’ decision-making at different times in the year. Relying on lab-in-the-field and real-world experiments in a mobile-phone based weather forecasting service for farmers in South India, this paper identifies how farmers interpret and act on probabilistic information, and how farmers use and respond to forecasts in varying formats.
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(with Orazio Attanasio, Anjini Kochar, and Aprajit Mahajan)
NBER Working Paper. 31245
Abstract (click to expand): Evaluations of group savings and lending programs have largely focused on average impacts, rather than distributional impacts — finding modest effects on long-term economic well-being. In this paper, we exploit the randomized roll-out of a self-help group lending program in rural Bihar, India (Hoffmann et al., 2021) to demonstrate that well-functioning groups facilitate risk-sharing within rural communities. We find no impact of the program on risk-sharing, measured as a reduction in the variance of consumption growth, in the aggregate. However, the program significantly improves risk-sharing in regions where it had greater institutional capacity and was better implemented. Building on our theoretical framework, we provide evidence of a specific channel of impact: program quality and pre-existing scale improve the quality and functioning of groups, which in turn increase the insurance value of the program to communities.
Ideas for India Blogpost
Working Paper
Abstract (click to expand): A majority of household borrowing in developing countries is from informal lenders. In this paper, I exploit exogenous weather-induced shocks to household credit demand and variation in bank credit supply to demonstrate that informal moneylenders rely on bank credit to ease lending capital constraints in rural India. I document that informal moneylenders use loans from banks as lending capital, and they increase borrowing from banks following weather-induced increases in household credit demand. Moreover, following an equivalent demand shock, districts with higher predicted bank credit supply see larger increases in household borrowing from moneylenders than those with lower predicted bank credit supply — driven by changes in moneylender supply rather than in household demand for credit overall. These results help explain the persistence of informal credit since they indicate that, rather than competing with informal moneylenders, banks effectively collaborate with them.
Ideas of India Podcast
Ideas for India Blogpost
Abstract (click to expand): Federal and state governments in India have relied on women’s Self-Help Groups (SHGs) to provide access to low-cost credit and savings with the dual intent of financial inclusion and women’s empowerment. I focus on one such SHG initiative in the state of Bihar, Jeevika, and exploit the randomized roll-out of the program to evaluate its impact on women’s labor supply. I find that the program had mixed effects across caste categories. Women from more privileged households increased their labor supply, while both women and men from disadvantaged households decreased their labor supply. The decline in labor supply among disadvantaged households is driven by reduced participation in agricultural wage labor, and is associated with an increase in agricultural labor wage rates. These results suggest that better access to finance reduces the need to sell labor as a coping mechanism for women from more vulnerable households; while allowing women from privileged households to increase their labor force participation in more ‘suitable’ occupations.
Website: Website code source.
© 2024 Vaishnavi Surendra.
